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ASML raises sales forecast again as AI demand lifts outlook
The company now expects AI-driven revenue of at least 43 billion euros for 2026, while options positioning signals investors are worried about downside from current levels.
ASML Holding raised its sales outlook again after reporting a strong Q2, pointing to AI-driven demand as a key driver. Management now expects full-year sales of at least 43 billion euros, above consensus expectations of about 38 billion euros. Shares have climbed sharply in 2026, up more than 50% versus the start of the year, but market pricing is turning more cautious. Barchart data cited by Yahoo Finance shows the put-to-call ratio for ASML options expiring in mid-October is 5.13x, indicating a heavy bearish skew, and the lower price on those contracts is about $1,405, implying more than 20% potential downside. The outlook also faces valuation and geopolitical pressure, according to the report. ASML is trading at roughly 47x forward earnings, which the article says makes it more expensive than some peers, including Nvidia and Micron. Geopolitical headwinds add another risk layer, with China representing about 20% of ASML total sales. The article highlights ongoing pressure from US and EU regulators to tighten China’s access to advanced DUV systems, on top of existing EUV export limits, warning that stricter trade rules could quickly reduce shipments to the region.