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New Zealand CPI set to jump as fuel and household energy surge
The June quarter is expected to lift annual inflation to 4.1% and push core inflation risks higher, a watchpoint for the RBNZ after Middle East-related oil price moves.
Inflation in New Zealand is expected to rise sharply in the June quarter ahead of the report due on 21 July, with Action Forex forecasting consumer prices up 1.5% over the three months.
That increase would take the annual inflation rate to 4.1%, from 3.1% in the year to March, the highest level in two years, according to the preview.
Action Forex attributes the spike mainly to fuel costs since the start of the Middle East war, estimating petrol prices rose 20% over the quarter and diesel prices climbed 51%, with both categories making up about 4% of the CPI. The firm also points to broader household energy pressure, including electricity up 4% over the quarter and up 12% over the past year, and household gas prices up 2% over the quarter and 11% over the year.
Beyond energy and fuel, the preview expects food prices to rise 0.4% over the quarter, alongside knock-on effects on business operating costs. Action Forex says that tighter margin pressure and softer demand may limit how much higher costs pass into consumer prices, but it flags the risk of spillover into broader inflation, making core inflation measures a key focus for the RBNZ.