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US property and casualty insurance underwriting improves into 2028
Triple-I and Milliman project P&C underlying growth will outpace US GDP through 2028, even as uncertainty stays elevated into 2026.
The US property and casualty insurance market is expected to keep improving, with the Insurance Information Institute, or Triple-I, and Milliman pointing to more favorable underwriting conditions as key economic drivers stabilize and claims costs ease.
In its latest report, Triple-I says major P&C lines are projected to deliver stronger underwriting performance through 2028, outpacing the growth of the broader US economy. Triple-I also expects geopolitical tensions to ease during the second half of the year, but it flags significant risks to economic drivers in the rest of 2026, including inflationary pressures linked to the Persian Gulf conflict.
The report says performance varies by line: personal lines posted strong underwriting results in the first quarter of 2026, a trend it expects to continue through year end, while homeowners insurance faces higher uncertainty due to elevated catastrophe risk. For commercial lines, property-related coverages did well in Q1, but liability-exposed lines including general liability and commercial auto still show elevated loss ratios, and workers compensation remains well positioned on stable employment and wage trends.
Triple-I’s chief economist and data scientist, Michel Léonard, said its P&C economic forecasts have improved since earlier this year, and Triple-I’s chief insurance officer, Patrick Schmid, said underwriting performance is strengthening across much of the industry even as each line responds differently to economic conditions, persistent claims drivers, and changing exposures.