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Social Security could cut benefits to about 78% without changes
The 2025 Trustees report projects the trust fund surplus could run out within a few years, which would mean retirees receive about 78% of scheduled benefits.
Social Security faces a funding shortfall as the system shifts from paying out less than it collects to paying out more than it takes in, which could eventually reduce benefits, according to a July 18 analysis published by Yahoo Finance that draws on Social Security Administration data and the 2025 Trustees report.
The article says the surplus in Social Security’s trust funds is projected to run out within a few years if Congress does not strengthen the program. It projects that benefits would shrink to around 78% of the amount due to beneficiaries.
Using the report’s estimate, the analysis provides an example: a retiree expecting $2,500 in the first year of benefits could receive about $1,950 instead, or less.
Yahoo Finance also argues that even with a potential benefit cut, many households may be more immediately exposed to retirement income risk because savings and retirement readiness may not be sufficient, citing the 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey and noting the average monthly retirement benefit was $2,084 as of June.