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CLARITY Act odds slip as US lawmakers weigh crypto ethics
Prediction market activity surged, with notional volume reaching a record $113.8 billion in the second quarter even as spot volume on top centralized exchanges fell to $1.95 trillion.
Cointelegraph reports that the odds of the US CLARITY Act passing this year have fallen to 40%, according to Polymarket, after Democratic Senators including Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley, and Chris Van Hollen voiced opposition.
A key Senate vote could be held as early as this week, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune saying it will definitely take place before Aug. 10, while Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren has urged scrutiny of President Trump’s crypto-related earnings.
The political dispute has centered on calls for a ban on elected officials promoting or issuing cryptocurrency as a condition for broader Democratic support, according to the report.
Cointelegraph also said crypto trading was weak in the second quarter overall, with spot trading volume across the top 10 centralized exchanges falling from $2.7 trillion in the first quarter to $1.95 trillion, while stablecoin market supply slipped 1.6% to $305.1 billion. In contrast, prediction markets recorded their strongest quarter on record, reaching $113.8 billion in notional volume, and Polymarket’s World Cup winner market drew more than $3.3 billion in trading volume.