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Risk-off sentiment weighs on forint as US-Iran tensions dominate
ING expects Hungary to cut rates to 5.75% and sees EUR/HUF topping out near current levels after forint weakness tied to crowded positioning and profit-taking.
Escalating US-Iran tensions are driving a broader risk-off mood and overpowering a light data week for Central and Eastern Europe currencies, according to ING commentary cited by FXStreet.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky said the National Bank of Poland may still consider further cuts, while Turkey’s central bank is expected to keep its policy rate at 37% and Hungary is seen trimming rates by 25 basis points to 5.75%.
In FX markets, the forint has been hit hardest, reflecting crowded long positioning and profit-taking, with EUR/HUF trading around 363 on Friday near post-election levels. ING also said market attention remains focused on the US-Iran conflict, with few regional releases expected to challenge the global narrative.
ING added that Turkey’s next decision could hinge on inflation expectations ahead of the Central Bank of Turkey meeting, while Hungary’s rate cut path aligns with signals from the governor at the previous meeting.