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SpaceX shares fall below IPO price as supply overhang looms
SpaceX shares have slid about 9% below the $135 IPO level, and lock-up expiration could lift eligible trading shares to as much as 40% by December.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp, ticker SPCX, has lost its IPO premium as investors reassess the valuation assumptions behind the company tied to AI infrastructure spending and long term growth. According to Yahoo Finance, the stock fell below its $135 IPO price after reaching an all time high of $225.64, and it is trading around $123.
The pullback reflects concerns about whether the IPO pricing was justified, with the valuation based on years of future execution rather than current earnings. Yahoo Finance notes the shares trade at about 45 times estimated 2026 sales, and the IPO valuation implied revenue could approach roughly $178 billion by 2035 and potentially exceed $500 billion over the following decade.
In the latest reported period cited by Yahoo Finance, SpaceX sales rose 33% to $18.67 billion in 2025, with Starlink representing about 60% of total revenue. The premium valuation also depends on expectations for Starship to become fully reusable and for Starlink to expand significantly.
A key near term risk highlighted by Yahoo Finance is lock up expiration, which could pressure the stock even if fundamentals do not change. The company initially created a small public float of about 5% of total shares, so post IPO scarcity helped support the price, but up to 40% of outstanding shares could become eligible for trading by December, while Elon Musk shares remain locked until mid next year.