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Rupiah seen stabilizing as USD/IDR eases from recent highs
OCBC flagged 17,970 to 18,000 as a near-term ceiling for USD/IDR, with downside supports around 17,820 and 16,840, while investors look ahead to Bank Indonesia’s July 22 MPC decision.
OCBC analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect the Indonesian rupiah to see tentative stabilization, with USD/IDR easing modestly from recent highs rather than beginning a sustained appreciation trend.
They tied the more supportive tone to S&P’s affirmation of Indonesia’s BBB rating with a stable outlook and to Bank Indonesia’s prior tightening, which they said has helped provide a policy anchor for the currency.
Even so, the outlook is constrained by elevated oil prices, lingering fiscal concerns, and still-soft portfolio inflows, with the pair last seen around the 17,940 level.
OCBC said the Bank Indonesia MPC meeting on July 22 will be closely watched for any further tightening, and it highlighted a potential 17,970 to 18,000 cap for USD/IDR, followed by support around 17,820 and 16,840 if downside pressure gathers momentum.