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Australia unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.4% in June

Markets expect Australia to add 15K jobs in June while the unemployment rate stays at 4.4%, a backdrop for AUD moves as oil-driven risk sentiment and US inflation expectations compete.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Australia is set to release its June monthly employment report on Thursday at 01:30 GMT, with market participants looking for a modest increase in hiring and a steady unemployment rate, according to FXStreet.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to report 15K new jobs for the month, while the unemployment rate is forecast at 4.4%, unchanged from May. The ABS also reports participation, which stood at 66.7% in the prior month.

FXStreet notes that the data release may be weighed against broader sentiment drivers, including firmer oil prices tied to mounting tensions in the Middle East. It said rising oil can strengthen the US dollar if investors worry inflation will pick up and force a Federal Reserve response.

The outlook for AUD also hinges on recent US inflation dynamics, FXStreet said. It pointed to the June US CPI rising 3.5% year over year, slower than May’s 4.2%, which cooled rate hike expectations and limited dollar demand, even as AUD has outperformed at times in July after bottoming at 0.6865 in late June. It added that the Reserve Bank of Australia left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% in June, while still stating inflation remains too high.

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