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Hungarian forint outlook hinges on NBH easing path

ING expects EUR/HUF to fall back below 360 if the global backdrop stabilizes after the NBH signaled further cuts.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky said the National Bank of Hungary cut rates by 25 basis points to 5.75% and kept a dovish forward path, pointing to additional easing in August and an assessment in September.

FXStreet notes that markets have largely accepted the renewed rate-cut signal, with ING expecting more dovish repricing as pricing shifts away from a tighter implied terminal rate range.

ING estimates that while EUR/HUF could remain supported near post-election levels, further NBH cuts would reduce expected carry and could still be pressured by a stronger US dollar and risk-off conditions.

The strategist added that if the global backdrop stabilizes, ING expects EUR/HUF to move back below 360.

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