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Reinsurance pricing drops deepen after 2026 renewal season ends

Autonomous said property catastrophe reinsurance pricing weakened at each successive renewal in 2026, with June and July reductions reaching 20% or more.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Reinsurance

Investment research firm Autonomous says the impact of a softening reinsurance market is becoming more visible, with sustained pricing declines now weighing on revenue growth and expected to pressure underwriting performance over time.

According to Autonomous, the final major renewal season of 2026 concluded with property catastrophe reinsurance pricing weakening at each successive renewal. It said reductions widened from the mid-teens at the January renewals to the high teens in April, before reaching reductions of 20% or more during the June and July renewal period.

Autonomous estimates the June and July renewals account for about 15% to 20% of annual reinsurance volumes across its coverage universe, compared with roughly 50% to 60% that renew at 1 January. It added that broker commentary on mid-year renewals has been shaped by structural improvements in the Florida market, where lower expected losses for reinsurers have added downward pressure to pricing.

The firm said upcoming second-quarter results should clarify how individual reinsurers are being affected, including impacts on pricing and premium volumes. Autonomous also pointed to its view that property catastrophe reinsurance rates have broadly returned to 2022 levels, and noted the Guy Carpenter property catastrophe rate index is about 1% above its 2020 to 2026 average.

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