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USDCAD hovers near 200-hour MA after tariff-fueled rebound
The pair challenged 1.4116 but backed off, trading around 1.4082 while the 200-hour moving average near 1.4078 is retested.
USDCAD surged earlier this week as renewed trade tensions followed the U.S. announcement of 50% tariffs on selected Canadian goods, boosting the U.S. dollar versus Canada. Housing and policy headlines shifted the short-term technical picture back in favor of buyers after the pair spent nearly two weeks below its longer-term intraday trend gauge.
The rebound culminated when USDCAD climbed above its 200-hour moving average for the first time since July 8, then pushed toward a resistance area near 1.4116. The pair reached a high of 1.4111, stopping roughly five pips short, before momentum faded and price rotated lower.
During the European session, the decline brought USDCAD back to test the 200-hour moving average again. That line is at 1.40779, and the pair’s low of 1.40778 was an almost exact touch, with modest buying emerging as it traded around 1.40823 in early North American trading.
If USDCAD remains above the 200-hour level, the near-term technical outlook stays modestly bullish, but a sustained move below would neutralize the bias and shift focus to the 100-hour moving average at 1.40541. A deeper correction becomes more likely if sellers regain control by pushing the pair below both moving averages and eventually under the 38.2% retracement level near the 1.42473 to early May range, which the weekly low at 1.4003 has not yet breached.