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Zillow forecasts 2026 home sales growth as affordability improves
Zillow expects 2026 Zillow Existing Home Sales to rise 1.2% and NAR existing home sales to grow 1.9%, after a prolonged but easing “rate shock.”
Zillow Research says the 2026 housing outlook has improved as the impact of a “rate shock” appears to be shrinking but not disappearing for the rest of the year. The firm links sales volume for 2026 to how long that rate pressure lasts, and it now expects growth to land below its prior Q1 estimates but remain positive, following a slightly disappointing start to the year. For overall sales, Zillow forecasts 1.2% growth in 2026 measured by its Zillow Existing Home Sales metric, and 1.9% growth based on NAR existing home sales. The report also points to regional differences in full-year trends, driven by varying inventory and demand dynamics across markets.
On the rental side, Zillow expects single-family rents to rise 3.1% in 2026 and multifamily rents to increase 2.0%. It says the rental picture should remain measured as new supply is gradually absorbed and conditions tighten, while the “window” for renters to find relative deals is slowly closing.
Zillow frames the second half of 2026 as increasingly likely to be positive for growth, supported by a tailwind toward better affordability for most of the year, even as year-end comparisons in Q4 may be tougher given current interest rate levels.