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July US flash PMIs eyed as input costs could sway USD and EUR/USD
FXStreet said expectations point to S&P Global services PMI easing to 51.0 and manufacturing rising to 54.5, both above 50, while oil prices and Fed hike pricing add sensitivity to any inflation signals.
FXStreet said S&P Global will publish US July flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices on Friday, a key early read on private sector business conditions that can influence the US Dollar.
Market participants expect the S&P Global Services PMI to decline slightly to 51.0 from 51.2 in June, while the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is forecast to edge higher to 54.5 from 53.9, with both prints staying in expansion territory above 50.
Beyond the headline numbers, the surveys include comments on employment and input inflation, and FXStreet noted those details could drive volatility because they feed into expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
FXStreet also pointed to oil moving higher, with West Texas Intermediate up nearly 30% in July, and cited CME FedWatch pricing of nearly an 80% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike by September, adding that a renewed input cost concern could strengthen the USD and weigh on EUR/USD.
Latest closeEUR/USD 1.138 ▼0.2%