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Mortgage rates likely to stay volatile ahead of Fed chair Warsh meeting
The outlook is shaped by elevated rate uncertainty plus oil and tariff risks, with jobless claims falling to the lowest level since 1969.
Redfin News said mortgage rates are likely to remain volatile as markets head into Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s second meeting on Wednesday, with uncertainty tied to multiple risk factors including energy prices, inflation pressures linked to AI, and the Fed’s shifting reaction function.
The outlet noted that futures markets are pricing about a one-third chance of a hike, and that the Fed has historically preferred to telegraph moves, making this period of forecasting uncertainty more likely to spill into mortgage pricing.
After the Fed meeting, Redfin News pointed to the release of Q2 GDP and June core PCE data, with GDP expected to rise and core PCE inflation expected to show a small decline.
On the macro side, the outlet also flagged geopolitics and policy, saying energy prices surged as investors lost confidence in prospects for peace with Iran, and the White House announced new tariffs, including 50% on some Canadian exports. Redfin News added that jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969, even as it cautioned methodological factors could mean the drop is partly noise.