Real Estate
Home›Real Estate›Mortgages›Mortgage rates may stay volatile as Fed uncertainty an…
Mortgage rates may stay volatile as Fed uncertainty and oil risks persist
A Fed event on Wednesday has futures pointing to roughly a one-third chance of a rate hike, while energy price pressure and a tariff backdrop add to mortgage-rate uncertainty.
Redfin News said mortgage rates are likely to remain volatile heading into Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s second meeting on Wednesday, with markets uncertain about how the Fed will act.
The outlet pointed to risks tied to oil prices, AI-driven inflation dynamics, and what it described as a more unpredictable Fed stance under Warsh. It noted that futures forecasting has suggested about a one-third chance of a hike, despite the Fed’s history of trying to telegraph decisions to avoid surprising markets.
Redfin News added that while June jobs and inflation data were described as surprisingly mild, it expects the committee to hold rates while some dissents could favor higher rates, pushing debate to the September meeting. It also flagged that the day after the Fed meeting will bring Q2 GDP data and June core PCE, with GDP expected to tick up and core PCE expected to show a small decline.
On other drivers, the outlet said geopolitics is again affecting energy prices due to concerns around prospects for peace with Iran, with no clear quick resolution. It also cited jobless claims falling to the lowest level since 1969, and said the White House announced new tariffs, including 50% on some Canadian exports, though it argued the changes mostly replace expiring tariffs and do not materially shift the average effective rate.