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Prediction market traders raise odds of a July Fed rate hike
Polymarket and Myriad both show the “no change” outcome falling to about 73% to 74%, while the 25-basis-point hike probability rises to roughly 26% to 27%.
Prediction market traders have increased the implied odds of a July Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of the central bank’s two-day meeting, according to Decrypt. The “no change” outcome has fallen over the past 24 hours on both Polymarket and Myriad, while the probability of a quarter-point increase has risen by roughly 8% to 10%.
On Polymarket, the “no change” option dropped 8.9 percentage points to 73.25%, while the 25-basis-point hike rose 9.7 points to 26.65%. Decrypt also cited $100.83 million traded overall on Polymarket, with $5.78 million in volume in the past 24 hours.
Myriad, operated by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, showed a similar split, with “no change” at about 74% and the increase near 27%. Over the past day, the odds of “no change” fell by 9%, while the rate hike odds rose by 8%.
Fed-funds futures pointed to an even higher chance of an increase, with probabilities around 37.6% to 38.8% as of Monday afternoon. Decrypt noted that a 25-basis-point hike would move the Fed’s target range from 3.50% to 3.75% up to 3.75% to 4.00%, and that the FOMC decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern time on July 29, after meetings on July 28 to 29.