Crypto
Home›Crypto›Market Structure›Rate expectations, GDP and PCE loom for crypto markets…
Rate expectations, GDP and PCE loom for crypto markets this week
CME FedWatch shows a 33% chance of a U.S. rate increase, while U.S. second-quarter GDP and June PCE are due Thursday.
Crypto markets are entering the week of July 27 with interest rates expected to be a key driver, as the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are all widely expected to hold their policy rates.
CoinDesk highlights that CME’s FedWatch indicates a 33% chance of a U.S. rate increase, and prediction markets put the odds at 19%, up from near zero earlier in the month. EY-Parthenon’s chief economist Gregory Daco said September could be the first meaningful test of the Fed’s stance, according to CBS News.
Near-term macro catalysts scheduled for Thursday include U.S. second-quarter GDP and June Personal Consumption Expenditure, or PCE. The outlet says strong growth paired with persistent inflation would likely reinforce higher-for-longer expectations, weighing on crypto through higher yields and a stronger dollar, while softer data could do the opposite.
On the crypto side, CoinDesk points to BitMEX’s early settlement of 35 derivatives, FTX’s start of an approximately $900 million creditor distribution, and earnings from Robinhood, Coinbase, and Strategy for clues on retail activity and digital-asset treasury businesses. It also notes Reuters consensus expectations for the BOE to hold at 3.75% and the BOJ to remain at 1% before any potential further hikes later this year.