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Traders raise odds of Fed hike on prediction markets ahead of July decision

Prediction-market pricing lifted the implied 25-basis-point chance to 26.65% on Polymarket and to 27% on Myriad, with Fed-funds futures pointing near 38% for an increase.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Prediction-market traders have increased the implied odds of a surprise Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of the July meeting, according to Decrypt. In the last 24 hours, the probability attached to a quarter-point increase rose, while the odds of no change fell sharply.

On Polymarket, the “no change” outcome dropped 8.9 percentage points to 73.25%, while the 25-basis-point increase jumped 9.7 points to 26.65%. Decrypt also reported $100.83 million traded overall on Polymarket, including $5.78 million in the past 24 hours.

Myriad, which Decrypt says is operated by its parent company Dastan, showed a similar split, with 74% for no change and 27% for a rate increase. Fed-funds futures put the chance of a hike at 38.8% as of Monday afternoon, while Decrypt also cited 37.6% on Fed-funds futures.

A 25-basis-point move would raise the Fed’s target range from 3.5% to 3.75% up to 3.75% to 4.0%, Decrypt noted. The FOMC meets July 28 to 29, with the rate decision scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern on July 29.

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