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BNY points to elevated supercore inflation, but backs a July hold
BNY strategists say supercore has been running nearly a percentage point above its pre-COVID pace, though they see no clear acceleration and link much of the rise to transportation services and health care costs.
BNY strategists John Velis and David Tam argue that elevated US supercore inflation, measured as core services excluding shelter, remains one of the strongest arguments for further Fed tightening. They say core services ex shelter has been running nearly a percentage point above its pre-COVID pace since mid-2023.
In their view, ongoing debates over how to measure inflation are also part of the policy backdrop. They reference Chair Kevin Warsh’s Inflation Frameworks Task Force, which will reassess measures such as trimmed mean inflation and how those readings should translate into Fed policy.
Even so, BNY says it does not find the case for a rate hike completely persuasive for the near term, calling the decision a close call. The strategists note that while sticky supercore inflation is a concern, it has been steady and has not been rising.
BNY also attributes part of the supercore pressure to transportation services, including airfares tied to the energy shock, and to health care costs linked to rising insurance premiums, as well as financial services. It adds that transportation and health care together account for 0.7% of the 3.0% increase in supercore, and argues those components are not particularly sensitive to tighter monetary policy, reinforcing its preference for holding rates in July.