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Quantum computing could become cyber insurance's next systemic risk
US cyber claims rose nearly 40% in 2024 to nearly 50,000, even as direct written premium fell 7% to about $9.14 billion, according to NAIC data.
The cyber insurance industry is still working out how to price artificial intelligence risk, but another threat is increasingly showing up on underwriting agendas, quantum computing, which could eventually undermine widely used public key encryption, Insurance Business reports. The outlet points to the near term strain already building in the cyber market, noting that the National Association of Insurance Commissioners said US cyber claims climbed almost 40% in 2024 to nearly 50,000, while direct written premium declined 7% to about $9.14 billion. A Verizon 2025 breach study also highlighted the broader driver of insurers' exposure, with ransomware found in 44% of breaches and a 34% increase in vulnerability exploitation as an initial access route, including heavy targeting of zero days in perimeter devices and virtual private networks. For quantum risk specifically, the concern is that a sufficiently capable, cryptographically relevant quantum computer could break RSA and elliptic curve cryptography that support online transactions, digital signatures and sensitive data. The US Government Accountability Office estimates experts place the arrival of a code breaking quantum computer roughly 10 to 20 years away, and it warns the US lacks a fully coordinated national plan covering both federal agencies and critical infrastructure, while a June 2026 executive order pushes federal systems toward post quantum cryptography by end 2030 for key establishment and end 2031 for digital signatures.