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Fed reaction lifts short Treasuries while MBS slips
Mortgage-backed securities fell about an eighth, while the 10-year Treasury yield moved up roughly 2 basis points to 4.628% by 2:30pm.
HousingWire reports the Federal Reserve did not raise rates, even as markets had been pricing in about a 1 in 3 chance of a hike, a setup that initially supported a rally at the front end of the yield curve.
The outlet says longer term rates also rallied early, with no surprises apparent as of 2:30pm and Warsh's prepared remarks described as not significant. The market shift came as remarks suggested looking beyond PCE to a broader set of inflation data to reach the 2% target, which some traders could interpret as either a desire to improve inflation understanding or an effort to justify avoiding a hike.
HousingWire notes traders could also view comments as reducing urgency for a rate increase because the bond market was already moving toward higher rates. It adds that this contributed to a shift in the longer end of the yield curve, with the bond selloff described as ending once the press conference concluded.
On market moves cited by HousingWire, mortgage-backed securities were down about an eighth, and the 10-year Treasury yield was up about 2 basis points to 4.628% at the time referenced, with MBS edging toward unchanged levels and the 10-year still up about 1.4 basis points on the day at 4.62%. The outlet also points to weaker overnight conditions tied to renewed fighting involving Iran.