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Kumamoto quake insured losses expected far below 2016 levels
Howden Re Japan said the insured loss outlook is likely to be closer to the 2024 Noto earthquake unless aftershocks reveal more extensive damage.
Howden Re Japan CEO Kentaro Tada said the magnitude 7.1 earthquake that struck Kumamoto Prefecture on 28 July is expected to generate insured losses well below those from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, while also noting the outcome could change if the ongoing aftershock sequence uncovers more damage. Tada pointed to early indications of dozens of fatalities, hundreds of injuries, and localized structural damage, and said the situation may be more comparable to the 2024 Noto earthquake unless aftershocks escalate the impact. The Japan Meteorological Agency reported the quake measured magnitude 7.1 at a shallow depth of about 10 km, with shaking reaching a maximum intensity of Shindo 7 in parts of Kyushu, and authorities warned that the risk of strong aftershocks remains elevated. Howden Re added that Kumamoto is a major semiconductor manufacturing hub, where several facilities operated by or linked to TSMC/JASM, Sony, Tokyo Electron and other suppliers temporarily suspended operations to run safety inspections. Howden Re also said restart timelines will influence the size of business interruption losses. The outlet further noted that its international catastrophe research head, Myrto Papaspiliou, said the event followed similar magnitude and depth to the 2016 Kumamoto sequence, though with a slightly different shaking footprint, and that researchers had previously flagged elevated stress on fault segments south of that rupture.