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SNB likely to keep rates unchanged through end-2027, Commerzbank says

Commerzbank points to weaker-than-expected imported inflation and limited exchange-rate pass-through as reasons the SNB has little incentive to tighten.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister said subdued imported inflation and low exchange-rate pass-through give the Swiss National Bank little reason to tighten policy, even after an uptick in Swiss prices.

Pfister said inflation is rising only slightly, if at all, and reiterated a forecast that SNB interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2027.

He added that while Switzerland’s inflation has picked up in recent months, the move has been smaller than expected, with one explanation being that the exchange-rate effect appears smaller than typically assumed.

The note also highlighted a wider backdrop in FX markets, including cable trading near 1.3300 ahead of the Fed gathering and EUR/USD holding a tight range below 1.1400 as investors wait for the FOMC decision.

Latest closeEUR/USD 1.139 ▼0.1%

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