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Softer Australian inflation data keeps RBA on pause for August
TD Securities highlights that the RBA core measure, trimmed mean inflation, ran at 3.6% year-over-year versus its May forecast of 3.8%.
TD Securities strategists say Australia’s Q2 Consumer Price Index and June headline inflation came in below expectations, easing pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia and supporting the case for no near-term rate change.
The firm points to trimmed mean inflation, which the RBA focuses on, printing at 3.6% year-over-year, below the RBA’s May Statement of Monetary Policy forecast of 3.8% year-over-year.
TD Securities also notes the core measure translated to a 0.81% quarterly rise, comparable with Q1’s 0.84%, while June headline CPI landed at 3.8% year-over-year, below the consensus estimate of 4.0%.
With housing activity slowing and housing cited as the largest contributor to June headline inflation, TD Securities expects the RBA to remain in a pause-and-observe approach at its August meeting while it waits for additional CPI guidance.