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China Politburo focus shifts to fiscal execution, Six Networks push

TD Securities expects stronger fiscal implementation to lift China GDP growth to 4.6% in 2026, with an estimated CNY7.2 trillion fiscal impulse in the second half.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

FXStreet highlights TD Securities’ view of China’s July Politburo meeting, which, despite acknowledged growth challenges, did not point to major new stimulus. Instead, the emphasis is on executing existing fiscal plans, including accelerating spending and using bonds to support the Six Networks infrastructure program.

According to TD Securities, improved fiscal implementation could help raise China’s 2026 GDP growth to 4.6%. The analyst also notes that off-cycle stimulus remains possible if US-China trade tensions escalate.

TD Securities estimates China’s combined broad budget deficit target for 2026 at CNY11.8tn, similar to 2025, and says achieving the full-year goal implies another CNY7.2 trillion fiscal impulse, equivalent to 5.2% of GDP, which could support growth in the second half.

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