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Super El Niño set to shift global catastrophe risk away from the Atlantic
NOAA expects El Niño to strengthen through 2026, with an 81% chance of becoming very strong in October through December.
A rapidly strengthening Super El Niño is expected to redistribute catastrophe risk across global insurance portfolios, with the Atlantic facing less hurricane activity while other regions see higher odds of Pacific cyclones, drought, wildfire, and extreme rainfall, according to NOAA’s July outlook as covered by Insurance Business.
NOAA said the event is forecast to strengthen through the end of 2026, with a 97% chance it persists into early spring 2027, and an 81% probability that it becomes “very strong” during October through December. The agency also characterized it as one of the largest El Niños since record-keeping began in 1950.
Super El Niño conditions are generally defined as tropical equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising at least 2 degrees Celsius above average, though temperatures must be sustained to qualify. Munich Re’s Mark Bove said the speed and timing of the warming have been faster and earlier than in prior Super El Niños, and noted that strong events tend to make weather patterns more fixed and amplified.
While catastrophe models typically incorporate El Niño and La Niña in multi year risk views rather than treating a single season in isolation, NOAA in its July 2026 outlook called for a below average Atlantic hurricane season with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, with a 55% chance of coming in below average. Bove added that reduced probability does not mean zero risk, pointing to Hurricane Andrew in 1992 as an example, with insured losses of $27.3 billion in 2017 dollars cited from the Insurance Information Institute.