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$100 billion catastrophe is unlikely to harden reinsurance market

Berenberg estimates first half 2026 insured catastrophe losses were about $46 billion, with losses roughly 30% below the 10-year average, suggesting pricing pressure may persist into January 2027 renewals.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Reinsurance

The reinsurance market is likely to stay in a softening phase, and a single $100 billion catastrophe is unlikely to trigger a return to a hard market cycle, according to Berenberg analysts, as the industry enters the January 2027 renewals.

Berenberg said ample capacity and first half 2026 catastrophe losses that were about 30% below the 10-year average, at $46 billion, mean the loss environment is not pointing to the kind of capital depletion that typically drives sharp pricing moves.

The firm also highlighted that reinsurers own share of losses has fallen from 20% to 13%, shifting what market participants focus on, with terms and conditions expected to be the main source of contention.

Berenberg further pointed to lower-than-last-year loss estimates, citing Gallagher Re’s view of H1 2026 insured losses at $46 billion and Aon’s estimate of $47 billion, down from the broker’s $100 billion estimate for H1 2025, while noting that terms like a major Atlantic hurricane scenario are not expected to produce material loss pressure this year.

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