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Aon forecasts lower insured losses for Kumamoto earthquake than 2016
Aon estimates insured losses from the July 28 magnitude 6.8 quake could be lower than the 2016 Kumamoto events, while the quake caused widespread damage and at least 35 deaths.
Aon said industry losses from the magnitude 6.8 earthquake that struck Kumamoto Prefecture on July 28 are expected to be relatively lower than the earlier 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes. Aon cited 2016 totals of US$53 billion in economic losses and US$7.7 billion in insured losses as the benchmark for comparison.
In its weekly catastrophe report, Aon estimated that tens of thousands of properties were likely damaged, with full impact assessments expected to continue over the coming weeks. The broker noted the late-July quake resulted in at least 35 fatalities and hundreds of injuries, along with significant property and infrastructure damage across several prefectures.
Aon referenced U.S. Geological Survey data saying the main shock occurred in the afternoon local time on July 28 at a shallow depth of about 10 km, with an epicenter east of the city of Uto in Kumamoto Prefecture. It also pointed to subsequent aftershocks of at least 194 tremors with magnitude 1 or greater on the Japan Meteorological Agency scale, as well as ground deformation including an 87 cm shift to the northeast recorded in Yatsushiro.
Aon added that a governmental panel determined the earthquake originated from a segment of the Hinagu fault zone, about 30 km along the boundary. It said this fault line was involved in the major Kumamoto earthquakes a decade ago, with the event reaching the highest, 7th JMA intensity level in parts of Uki and Hikawa and intensity 6 across surrounding municipalities.