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Clarity Act odds jump as senators agree stablecoin yield limits
Polymarket estimates the bill’s 2026 passage odds rose to 64% after a stablecoin deal, up from 46%, following Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s renewed support for a potential markup.
The odds of the US Clarity Act passing in 2026 jumped after senators reached a deal on how stablecoin yield can be handled, with Coinbase executives expressing support, according to DL News. The proposed approach would ban payments that are “economically or functionally equivalent” to interest-bearing bank deposits.
DL News reports the news followed an earlier standoff in which Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong had pulled his support on the eve of a scheduled markup in January, putting the bill on ice. Armstong had said he was unhappy with how the bill treated stablecoins, and the Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott postponed the markup before negotiators returned to the talks.
The article says the stablecoin compromise is part of the broader policy debate triggered by last year’s GENIUS Act, which banned stablecoin issuers from paying yield or interest on customers’ digital dollars. The reporting notes the ban reflected banks’ concerns that customers could shift away from traditional checking and savings accounts for stablecoins, which often offer higher interest rates.
DL News adds that after the new deal, Polymarket showed the Clarity Act’s 2026 passage odds rising from 46% to 64%. It also cites Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s apparent encouragement of a committee vote, using a message that was interpreted as signaling support for a markup.