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Commerzbank expects higher aluminium prices on tight supplies

The bank links the outlook to low LME stocks and higher energy costs, and it flags China’s July trade data as a key near-term signal.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Industrial Metals

Commerzbank points to supply tightness as a driver for higher aluminium prices, with analyst Norman Liebke saying the market’s next move will hinge on upcoming Chinese data. In particular, Liebke highlighted that China’s July trade figures are likely to be important for base metals, especially aluminium.

In the bank’s view, Chinese aluminium production in the first half exceeded the official cap, implying output may ease later this year. That potential slowdown, combined with higher energy costs, could keep upward pressure on prices over the coming months.

Commerzbank also cites low LME stocks as part of the tightness backdrop. With inventories restrained and production potentially moderating later in the year, the bank expects aluminium to trend higher in the months ahead.

FXStreet’s commodity coverage notes Liebke’s setup for aluminium alongside broader market context, including its view that energy costs and data-driven expectations will matter for how prices develop.

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