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Australian dollar rises to a seven-week high near 0.7050
The move comes as the 50-day EMA near 0.7000 is being held for the first time since mid-June and recent policy expectations shift toward a likely August hold after softer inflation prints.
The Australian dollar is trading just above 0.7050, its highest level in seven weeks, after gaining close to two tenths of a percent and managing to hold above the 50-day exponential moving average near 0.7000 for the first time since mid-June, FXStreet writes.
The technical picture is improving, with the 200-day EMA near 0.6900 continuing to rise beneath and the price action reading more like a base than an ongoing downtrend. FXStreet also flags that the daily Stochastic RSI has rolled over from the high 80s to the mid 70s and that today’s trading range is about 25 pips.
FXStreet says the rally’s drivers are not tied to new Australia-specific developments. It points to a week when Australia’s own interest rate case was being dismantled, after the end-of-July inflation release showed headline inflation at 3.8% and the trimmed mean at 3.6%, both softer than expected.
With three earlier cash rate increases taking the cash rate from 3.6% to 4.35% and the June hold keeping another hike on the table, economists expected further increases into 2026 until the inflation data changed the outlook. FXStreet notes that all four major domestic banks have converged on a hold at 04:30 GMT on 11 August, with the Statement on Monetary Policy and related guidance to shape the forecast profile, while stronger activity data including a July composite PMI revised up to 53.2 and a record local equity close are adding to the risk appetite tone around the move.