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CLARITY Act odds slip for 2026 as Kalshi and Polymarket move timelines
Kalshi’s contract for enactment before Sept. 1, 2026 fell to 2 cents, while prices for later 2027 and January 2028 deadlines rose, shifting implied probability out of this year.
Prediction market traders have trimmed the likelihood that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year after Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to file cloture on the motion to proceed to the crypto market structure bill on Tuesday night and instead filed cloture on Wednesday morning for a college sports bill and the nomination of Todd Blanche, The Defiant reported.
Kalshi’s Sept. 1, 2026 deadline contract last traded at 2 cents, down from 4 cents, while the bill becoming law before Jan. 1, 2028 ticked up to 65 cents from 64 cents. The implied probability for enactment during calendar 2027 is about 43 cents, roughly double the 22 cents traders now assign to the rest of this year, based on how the series’ cumulative deadlines settle.
On Polymarket, the market asking whether the bill is signed into law in 2026 priced Yes at 15.5 cents, down 8.5 points on the day, while it has seen $4.76 million in total volume, including $896,780 in the prior 24 hours as of a Wednesday data update.
The Defiant also noted that Thune said he still wants a procedural vote after sequencing filings, with a cloture filing putting a vote on the schedule about 30 hours later. Kalshi previously settled an Aug. 1, 2026 deadline as “no” after about 1.11 million contracts traded, under series rules that only legislation signed into law pays out.