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Commercial property rates drop 8.1% in Q2, extending soft run

The decline marks the fifth straight quarter of negative commercial property pricing, while mid-year reinsurance catastrophe rate-on-line pricing fell about 16%.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Property Insurance

Commercial property insurance pricing fell 8.1% in the second quarter of 2026, extending a streak of declines to a fifth consecutive quarter, according to The Baldwin Group’s Q2 2026 Market Pulse report.

The report said the downturn is tied to softer reinsurance costs and a quieter 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook, even as litigation and tariffs continue to keep casualty severity elevated and pressure pricing assumptions. Shared and layered placements saw the deepest reductions as buyers used abundant excess capacity to restore limits, negotiate deductibles, and broaden terms that had been cost-prohibitive during the hard market.

Baldwin said mid-year reinsurance renewals showed risk-adjusted global property catastrophe rate-on-line pricing declining roughly 16%, deepening from a 12% decline at Jan. 1 renewals. It also pointed to a strengthening El Niño, with the Atlantic hurricane forecast at about nine named storms and one major hurricane, down from preseason estimates.

On the casualty side, commercial casualty lines continued rising in Q2, though Baldwin said the pace moderated versus earlier in 2026. Commercial auto pricing increases slowed to 4.5% in the quarter, down from a 5.7% average rise in the first quarter and the lowest quarterly reading in more than three years.

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