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TD Securities expects ISM services rebound as JOLTS openings cool
TD Securities points to JOLTS job openings slipping more than expected in June, while projecting the ISM Services Index to rise to 55.0 in July.
TD Securities strategists said US JOLTS job openings declined more than expected in June, though they remain elevated compared with private-sector indicators, in a backdrop of labor-market stability rather than tightness.
They highlighted that job openings fell to 7.359 million in June from 7.537 million in May, noting their view that over time BLS vacancy data may track down toward a more subdued trend.
For the next datapoint, they expect the ISM Services Index to increase to 55.0 in July from 54.0 in June, compared with a 54.5 consensus, with higher activity and new orders as the main drivers.
The note also pointed to employment as a factor that may partly reverse its June gains, citing that some employment-related components in recent ISM manufacturing data were strong and that high-frequency indicators suggest a firmer services read.