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Antipodes exits Suzano as pulp oversupply pressures returns
The firm cited narrowing margin of safety after Q1 2026 export pulp fell to $562 per ton and pulp EBITDA per ton dropped 11% year on year.
Antipodes Partners said it exited Suzano S.A., according to its Antipodes Global Strategy second quarter 2026 investor letter. The Australian asset manager noted that it closed the position in Brazilian pulp and paper producer Suzano at a point in the cycle where the margin of safety it expected had narrowed.
In the letter, Antipodes pointed to pressure in pulp fundamentals, including Q1 2026 export pulp of $562 per ton, with pulp EBITDA per ton down 11% year on year. The firm said management concerns about a return to prior US$700+ peaks were uncertain without significant supply cuts.
Antipodes also flagged that new capacity could add pressure in coming years, even as it noted Suzano has low cash costs. It said the company remains a cyclical trade where pricing and supply dynamics can outweigh demand tied to AI.
The broader investor letter described a strong second quarter for global equities, but it said the Antipodes Global Value Strategy lagged during the quarter and over the 12 months to June 30, 2026, as returns became concentrated in a narrow group of semiconductor and hardware stocks. The strategy continues to emphasize areas including valued infrastructure, specialty semiconductors, resilient software, and quality businesses, while remaining cautious on expensive memory companies due to cyclical pricing and supply.