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Commerzbank lifts near-term EUR/PLN forecast to 4.30

Commerzbank raised its near-term EUR/PLN outlook to 4.30 from 4.20, while keeping its end-2026 target at 4.25 and end-2027 at 4.40 as it expects the pair to climb steadily through 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Commerzbank has increased its near-term forecast for EUR/PLN to 4.30 from 4.20, according to analysis highlighted by FXStreet.

In its update, the bank pointed to recent global risk-off moves and uncertainty linked to an oil price shock as key drivers behind the revision.

Commerzbank left unchanged its end-2026 forecast at 4.25 and its end-2027 forecast at 4.40, while expecting EUR/PLN to rise steadily through 2027.

The bank also said a potential improvement for the zloty could depend on the timing of monetary policy, noting that Poland’s central bank, NBP, may stay on hold while oil prices and risk premia fall, before rate cut expectations return.

Still, it warned that in the medium term the zloty could face more headwinds from political risks, leading it to expect only a mild depreciating path.

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