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Mortgage rates may track easing 10-year Treasury yields toward 2030
A forecast tied to the 10-year Treasury assumes the Fed holds rates unchanged until December 2026, with the 10-year yield settling around 3.9% from late 2027 through 2030.
Mortgage interest rates tend to move with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, though mortgage rates are typically higher because lenders add risk premiums, according to Yahoo Finance. The analysis frames a five-year outlook by looking at where economists and market indicators expect Treasury yields to go, then accounting for the spread between Treasuries and mortgage pricing.
The piece cites Deloitte economist Michael Wolf, who in a December update assumed the Fed keeps rates unchanged until December 2026 and that the average federal funds rate reaches its neutral level of 3.125% in mid 2027. Wolf’s expectations also call for the 10-year Treasury yield to ease gradually through the second quarter of 2027 to settle at 3.9% from the third quarter of 2027 through the end of 2030.
Other forecasts in the analysis point to higher long term rates. Goldman Sachs expects the 10-year Treasury to rise to 4.5% by 2035, while the Congressional Budget Office projects the 10-year yield reaching 4.1% by the end of 2026 and edging up to about 4.3% by 2030.
Yahoo Finance says an AI system, Anthropic’s Claude, compiled a consensus forecast from those inputs for use in the outlook and discusses how the gap between the 10-year yield and 30-year fixed mortgage rates factors into estimated mortgage rate direction.