Forex
Home›Forex›EM Currencies›Philippine peso pressured by oil rebound, El Niño food…
Philippine peso pressured by oil rebound, El Niño food risks
ING economists forecast another 50bp of peso-supportive tightening in 2026, but warn political uncertainty could delay reforms and weigh on growth.
ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song warned that upside inflation risks are re-emerging for the Philippine peso, with oil prices starting to recover and expectations building for a strong El Niño.
They said El Niño could trigger a food-price shock, with rising global rice and fertiliser prices adding to the inflation pressure.
ING also highlighted that while the policy outlook includes another 50bp of tightening in 2026, political uncertainty is a key downside risk that could delay reforms and dampen growth.
The FXStreet note also tied the peso outlook to broader macro drivers, underscoring how near-term inflation dynamics could influence currency performance against the US dollar.