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Standard Chartered lifts its 2026 Indonesia growth forecast to 5.3%

The bank cites stronger-than-expected H1 data, even as it warns growth will stay modest due to weak formal-sector employment recovery and cautious private investment.

Reported · Written up by our desk · EM Currencies

Standard Chartered said Indonesia’s recent data supports a slightly higher macro outlook, pointing to Q2 GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in Q1 but still above consensus.

The bank attributed the upgrade to stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, which led it to raise its 2026 GDP forecast to 5.3% from 5.2%.

In its view, growth momentum will remain modest because the recovery in formal-sector employment is weak and private-sector investment remains cautious, even with government programmes and household consumption helping to offset softer external demand.

Standard Chartered also said the slowdown in Q2 was expected as one-off factors such as Eid spending and the harvest season faded, noting that Q2 still expanded faster than in 2025.

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