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Tesla leaving China could cut value tied to Optimus and robotaxi bets
RBC Capital Markets estimates China makes up about 25% of Tesla's sum of the parts value, with roughly half of that tied to unproven Optimus and a fifth to robotaxis rather than car sales.
A Wall Street Journal report last week raised the possibility that Tesla may be weighing a sale or closure of its China business, with analysts saying any such move could have major implications beyond near term delivery numbers.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk denied the report, but the scenario has prompted analysts to model how a China exit could affect the company's valuation, according to MarketBeat Ratings.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan estimates China accounts for around 25% of Tesla's sum of the parts value, even though China contributes roughly a fifth of total sales. RBC says only a small portion of that value comes from existing car sales, while about half is tied to the Optimus humanoid robot program and about a fifth to robotaxis.
The analysis suggests a sale driven by regulatory necessity could be completed from a weaker negotiating position, with a probable acquirer focused on the tangible automotive business and possibly self driving technology, potentially leaving limited value for the speculative robot and robotaxi upside.