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Australian dollar slips modestly near 0.7060 ahead of RBA decision
The RBA is expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, while U.S. payrolls weakness has trimmed odds of a September Fed hike and leaves AUD/USD supported into the week.
The Australian dollar traded near 0.7060 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, giving back a little ground after six straight weeks of gains, as traders looked ahead to the Reserve Bank of Australia decision.
Market pricing centers on whether the RBA will keep the door open to further tightening, with the RBA widely expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35%. The prior string of hikes earlier in 2026 lifted the rate from 3.60%, and the RBA has said it would hike again if needed, with Governor Michelle Bullock scheduled to speak after the Statement on Monetary Policy release.
Recent U.S. data has also been shaping the FX outlook, after Friday’s July Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a fall of 23,000 jobs versus forecasts for an 80,000 gain, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% because the labor force shrank. FXStreet said the weaker print reduced the likelihood of a September Fed hike and pressured the dollar, helping keep AUD/USD within its recent range.
Near-term catalysts arrive within 48 hours, including Bullock’s remarks and the U.S. CPI report on Wednesday, which FXStreet described as a test for whether Fed policy expectations remain on hold. Technically, AUD/USD was around 0.7063, holding above the 20-period simple moving average at 0.7050 and the 100-period moving average at 0.7007, with resistance seen near 0.7064 and 0.7070.