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Citi Mexico survey sees Banxico holding at 6.50% and USD/MXN steady

Economists surveyed by Citi expect Mexico’s July CPI at 3.13% year over year and forecast USD/MXN ending 2026 at 17.90.

Reported · Written up by our desk · EM Currencies

Citi Mexico’s Expectations Survey, polled 35 economists on Banxico monetary policy, inflation, growth, and the USD/MXN exchange rate. The survey shows most respondents expect policy to stay steady at 6.50%, with seven forecasting a rate hike and six expecting a cut later on.

On the currency outlook, the survey expects USD/MXN to end 2026 at 17.90, unchanged, while 2027 is seen with peso depreciation, with the exchange rate forecast at 18.50 and trading expected within 17.40 to 19.95.

Inflation expectations are also lower in the latest survey. For July, CPI is projected at 3.13% year over year, down from 3.37% previously, while core CPI is forecast at 3.94% year over year, down from 4.03%.

For the medium term, CPI is expected to end at 4.02% year over year, easing from 4.09%, and core CPI is forecast to fall to 4.0% from 4.10%. Mexico growth is projected at 1.2% in 2026, up from 1.1%, while 2027 GDP is seen at 1.8%, unchanged.

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