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Citi Mexico survey sees Banxico hold at 6.50% and USD/MXN near 17.90

Citi’s survey of 35 economists projects Mexico’s CPI to fall to 3.1% YoY for July and sees USD/MXN ranging 17.40 to 19.95 in 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Citi Mexico’s Expectations Survey, published Monday, polled 35 economists on Banxico monetary policy, inflation and the USD/MXN path. The survey indicates most respondents expect Mexico’s policy rate to stay steady at 6.50%, with seven anticipating a rate hike ahead and six expecting a cut at some point further out.

For the exchange rate, the consensus calls for USD/MXN to end 2026 at 17.90. Looking to 2027, economists expect the peso to weaken, with USD/MXN forecast at 18.50 and trading expected within a 17.40 to 19.95 range.

The survey also points to softer inflation, projecting July CPI at 3.13% YoY, down from 3.37% in the prior survey. Core CPI is seen at 3.94% YoY, also lower than 4.03% previously, with medium-term CPI forecast to end at 4.02% YoY and core CPI at 4.0%.

On growth, Citi’s economists project Mexico’s GDP to rise 1.2% in 2026, compared with 1.1% in the prior survey, and to reach 1.8% in 2027 unchanged. The note frames the peso’s outlook as tied to Mexico’s economic performance, Banxico policy, foreign investment and remittances, while also citing nearshoring and oil prices as potential catalysts.

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