Home›Forex›Major Pairs›EUR/RON seen steady near 5.25 as NBR holds rates at 6.…

EUR/RON seen steady near 5.25 as NBR holds rates at 6.50%

ING expects Romania’s NBR to keep the key rate at 6.50%, with the first cut not arriving until January 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky said Romania’s unchanged sovereign rating at Moody’s should ease some pressure in the local bond market after recent weakness in ROMGBs, though the National Bank of Romania is expected to remain cautious on inflation.

Taborsky pointed to Moody’s keeping Romania at Baa3 with a negative outlook and Fitch leaving its stance unchanged a week earlier, arguing that the rating relief could support a short-term Romanian Leu rebound as buyers and carry trades return.

On the currency outlook, ING expects EUR/RON to remain anchored just below 5.25, citing the NBR’s limited tolerance for further inflation pressure, while still allowing for some room for a near-term RON rally tied to improved sentiment.

ING also forecast that the NBR will hold rates at 6.50%, with the first expected cut in January 2027.

More like this

Sources