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Forint seen easing to 350–355 per euro if risk sentiment improves

Commerzbank warns that accelerating core inflation and MNB cuts that narrow real interest rates may later cap the durability of any HUF rebound.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose said recent weakness in the Hungarian forint looks like a high-beta correction tied to global risk-off moves, rather than a full reversal of the currency’s post-election outperformance.

The bank expects EUR/HUF could recover toward 350 to 355 if global risk sentiment improves, but it cautioned that the later outlook is clouded by accelerating core inflation and a narrowing gap in real interest rates as Hungary’s central bank (MNB) cuts.

Ghose also noted that the regime-change narrative following the April election has not disappointed so far, with Tisza’s ratings staying strong and Peter Magyar pushing reforms across multiple fronts.

According to the analysis, if the risk backdrop eases the forint may claw back part of its losses, but the familiar constraints linked to falling real yields may still weigh on the exchange rate afterward.

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