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Insured catastrophe losses dip in H1, but risk remains elevated
Swiss Re Institute estimates insured natural catastrophe losses totaled about $42 billion in H1 2026, 16% below the 10-year average, but it warns brokers not to extrapolate renewal pricing from the quieter period.
Global insured natural catastrophe losses were below trend in the first half of 2026, but Swiss Re Institute warned the industry against treating the six-month lull as proof that hazards are receding. Insurance Business reports Swiss Re Institute estimated insured nat cat losses at about US$42 billion in H1 2026, 16% below the 10-year average and the lowest first-half total since 2020.
The report said severe convective storms were the largest driver at an estimated US$28 billion, also below long-run trend, with the outcome influenced by geography rather than reduced hazard. Storm activity across the US stayed above average, but relatively few of the highest-impact events hit Texas, the Southern Plains, or the Southeast, regions that typically combine high storm frequency with dense insured asset concentrations.
Swiss Re Institute also said insurance covered about 42% of first-half economic losses, above the 30-year average of 33%, reflecting how damage concentrated in heavily insured markets rather than a structural improvement in global protection. It pointed to Venezuela as an example of the protection gap, citing an earthquake sequence there that caused an estimated US$20 billion in economic losses but with low insurance penetration limiting what would be insured.
The institute’s chief caution is that one major event can quickly change the overall picture, with Balz Grollimund, Head Catastrophe Perils at Swiss Re, saying a less costly first half does not mean risk has gone away. Swiss Re Institute also highlighted wildfire as the fastest-growing weather peril globally, estimating Europe’s insured wildfire losses have risen 8% to 11% per year in real terms since 1970, and noting record heat and persistent dry conditions have set up an active season.