Forex
Home›Forex›Major Pairs›MUFG flags INR CPI uptick and RBI hold risk for Decemb…
MUFG flags INR CPI uptick and RBI hold risk for December 2026
MUFG expects RBI policy easing to stay on hold near term, but it projects a start to 50 basis point hikes from the December 2026 meeting.
MUFG currency strategist Michael Wan said India’s inflation outlook is tilting slightly higher, with Consumer Price Index expected to edge up to 4.4% year on year from 4.3%. The note frames that shift as a key input for Reserve Bank of India rate expectations.
According to FXStreet, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said inflation is largely under control, supporting the view that policy rates will stay on hold near term. Wan nevertheless anticipates that policy rates will eventually rise, changing the timing of MUFG’s earlier hike projection.
FXStreet said MUFG moved its projected start for 50 basis point hikes to begin from the December 2026 meeting, reflecting the updated CPI risk profile.