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ECB wage tracker shows negotiated pay pressures steady into 2027
The ECB said the wage tracker horizon was extended to March 2027, with coverage of participating employees of 28.4% in the first quarter of 2027.
The European Central Banks wage tracker indicates negotiated wage pressures are broadly stable into 2027, showing a headline rate of 2.7% for the first quarter of 2027 after 2.3% smoothed one-off payments in 2026.
The ECB said the indicator, based on active collective bargaining agreements across participating countries, has a forward-looking horizon extended up to March 2027. It noted that as new agreements are signed and contract coverage reaching 2027 increases, the horizon will be further extended to the second quarter of 2027 in the September 2026 data release.
Separately, the ECBs wage tracker that uses unsmoothed one-off payments points to stable negotiated wage growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027. The version excluding one-off payments also holds at 2.6% for 2026 and 2.7% for the first quarter of 2027.
For 2026, the ECB said the headline wage tracker averages 1.8% in the first quarter, 2.1% in the second quarter, and 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters, reflecting the fading mechanical downward impact of large one-off payments made in 2024 but not in 2025. The ECB added that this mechanical effect virtually disappears in the second half of 2026 in the headline indicator.