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Nomura flags higher chances of an earlier Riksbank hike

Nomura expects the Riksbank to hold its policy rate at 1.75% in August, but cites stronger activity data, Middle East energy risks, and expected ECB tightening as factors that could pull a hike forward from late 2027.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Central Banks

Nomura strategists expect Sweden’s Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 1.75% at its August meeting, with no change through the rest of 2026, according to FXStreet.

While Swedish inflation is described as low and expectations anchored, Nomura points to stronger recent activity data alongside energy risks tied to the Middle East that could raise upside inflation pressure.

The note also says anticipated European Central Bank tightening increases the probability of an earlier Riksbank move than Nomura’s prior December 2027 timing, even though they do not expect the Riksbank to vote for a rate rise at this time.

Nomura expects the Riksbank to keep emphasizing uncertainty and remain prepared to act if needed, while also noting that market pricing reflects one to two hikes by year end as risks to its forecast have risen.

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